Demand Forecasting and Predictive Modelling

This week’s topics

Demand Forecasting and Predictive Modelling

1. Time-series decomposition
2. Exponential smoothing
3. Causal econometric regression
4. Forecast accuracy and error metrics (MAPE, MAD)
5. Mod-02 Lec-04 Forecasting -- Winter's model, causal models, Goodness of forecast, Aggregate Planning
6. Mod-02 Lec-03 Forecasting -- Linear Models, Regression, Holt's , seasonality
7. Predictive Modelling in Forecasting in Supply Chain

What you will be able to do

• 1.1 Explain qualitative and quantitative approaches to supply chain operations.
• 1.2 Apply appropriate forecasting techniques.

Activity

Start with this week’s 3 videos, then: Seminar, guided reading and a short written task: explain qualitative and quantitative approaches to supply chain operations.

Study materials

Videos

• Exponential Smoothing · YouTube · MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics · 15 min · for registered students
• Mitigating Biases To Improve Forecast Accuracy · YouTube · MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics · 46 min · for registered students
• Demand Forecasting in Publishing · YouTube · MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics · 50 min · for registered students

Further resources

• MIT OCW ESD.260J Logistics Systems (Fall 2006), Demand forecasting I: time series · PDF · MIT OpenCourseWare, slides · for registered students
• Operations Management (Fanshawe), ch. 3: Forecasting · Reading · Other, textbook chapter; PDF pp. 85–132 · for registered students
• Principles of Data Science, ch. 5: Time Series and Forecasting · PDF · OpenStax, textbook chapter; pp. 223–274 · for registered students